The WTO Goods Trade Barometer, an indicator for world trade, provides for real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade. The latest Goods Trade Barometer published on August 23rd was below the recent trend line for merchandise trade: although the global goods trade grew in the second quarter of 2022 the pace was slow, and the situation will presumably persist in the second half of the year.
For instance, the automotive products index (99.0), as well as the indices for air freight (96.9) and electronic components (95.6) are below trend. At the same time, the container shipping index (103.2) increased above trend as the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in China led to an increase in shipments through Chinese ports.
Overall, the latest barometer is aligned with the WTO’s most recent trade forecast from last April, foreseeing 3.0% growth in the volume of world merchandise trade in 2022, in spite of the high uncertainty linked to – among many – the conflict in Ukraine and rising inflationary pressures.
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